Dems once believed Hispanics were key to the future. Now, they’re leading the GOP to midterm victory. The GOP’s gains help Democrats gain control of the House and flip the Senate majority.
The Hispanic vote for President Donald Trump did not come from the usual GOP voter bloc. He won the Hispanic vote by a large margin in 2015 and re-elected President Barack Obama. Then-candidate Trump captured over 75% of the Hispanic vote in 2016.
Hispanics voted for Democrats in every special election after the 2012 election and have swung back to the GOP after eight years of Republican rule.
In the midterms, Hispanics will play a crucial role, helping Democrats retain control of the House of Representatives and possibly flip control of the Senate majority.
Republicans are hoping to win by appealing to Trump’s Hispanic base and building on the party’s successful 2016 election efforts.
The latest data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which is based on the 2012 election sample and includes all voters age 18 and over that were interviewed in early 2015, finds that Hillary Clinton’s margin of 1 percentage point in the Hispanic vote remains unchanged from just before the 2016 election.
The study, which has been running since 1979, said that Clinton’s lead among Hispanics was greater than Obama’s margin of 2 percentage points in 2012.
The Hispanic vote was at 30% in 2016 compared to 2012.
The study found, however, that Trump’s margin of victory among Hispanics was “largely unchanged” from Clinton’s margin in 2016, standing at 34% compared to 31%.
“The margin of victory for Republicans has risen across the board, from 23 to 26 percentage points,” said CECES Director Tom Jensen, “with the Democrats holding their current lead.”
According to data from the 2016 election, Hispanics had voted for